Beyond Probably: Ways to Express Probability in English

Hello, English learners! Welcome to a new lesson. In everyday life, we rarely speak with complete certainty. In this lesson, you will learn natural ways to say probably and express different degrees of possibility, probability and certainty in English.

We make guesses, predictions and assumptions based on the information available to us:

It will probably rain.
She will probably be late.
They will probably accept the proposal.

There is nothing wrong with probably. It is one of the most useful words in English. However, if you use it in every prediction, your English may begin to sound repetitive.

English offers many other ways to express possibility, probability and reasonable expectation. The expression you choose depends on how certain you are, what evidence you have and whether you are speaking informally or writing formally.

In this lesson, you will learn natural ways to talk about probability in English. These expressions are particularly useful for B2 First and C1 Advanced learners because they help you express ideas more precisely in conversations, essays, reports and exam tasks.

Table of Contents

Understanding Degrees of Probability

Not all expressions of probability communicate the same degree of certainty.

Compare:

Perhaps she’ll come.
It is possible, but we are not very sure.
She’ll most likely come.
We think there is a good chance that she will come.
She’ll almost certainly come.
We are very confident that she will come.

We cannot attach exact percentages to these expressions in every situation, but this scale gives you a useful general guide:


Possible	perhaps, possibly, may, might
Reasonably probable	there’s a good chance, likely
Probable	most likely, chances are, I expect
Based on an assumption	presumably
Expected	should
Very probable	in all likelihood, almost certainly

These ways to say probably are not completely interchangeable. Some express possibility, while others communicate a strong expectation or near certainty.

Perhaps

Meaning: possibly; used when something may happen or be true

Perhaps the weather will improve this afternoon.

Perhaps expresses possibility rather than strong probability. It is usually less certain than probably.

May and Might

Meaning: used to say that something is possible

It may rain later.
She might join us after work.

In many situations, may and might have very similar meanings. Some speakers use might when they consider something slightly less certain, but this difference is not always clear or important.

There’s a Good Chance

Meaning: something is reasonably likely to happen

There’s a good chance that the train will be delayed.

This expression is conversational and very natural. It is stronger than perhaps, but it does not suggest complete certainty.

Likely

Meaning: expected or probable

Prices are likely to rise next month.
She is likely to accept the offer.

Likely is one of the closest alternatives to probably, but its grammar is different.

Compare:

She will probably arrive late.
She is likely to arrive late.

Not:

~~She will likely to arrive late.~~
~~She is probably to arrive late.~~

Most Likely

Meaning: very probably; more probable than other possibilities

She will most likely arrive before noon.

Most likely is common in both conversation and writing.

This use is becoming more common elsewhere, but It will probably rain or It is likely to rain remains more traditional in British English.

Chances Are

Meaning: it is probable that something will happen or be true

Chances are, he has already heard the news.

This is a natural conversational alternative to probably.

I Expect

Meaning: used when you believe something will probably happen

I expect the journey will take about two hours.

I expect expresses a prediction or reasonable belief. It is common in British English and sounds natural in conversation.

Presumably

Meaning: used when you believe something is probably true because it seems reasonable or logical

Presumably, the office will be closed on Sunday.

Presumably is not simply a more formal version of probably. It shows that your conclusion is based on an assumption.

Compare:

He’ll probably be at home.
I think this is likely.
He’ll presumably be at home.
This is a reasonable assumption based on what I know.

Presumably is particularly useful in reports, discussions and C1-level writing because it shows the reasoning behind a conclusion.

Should

Meaning: used to say that something is expected to happen

The train should arrive in ten minutes.

In these examples, should does not express obligation. It expresses an expectation based on present information.

Compare:

You should call your mother.
This is advice.
Your mother should arrive soon.
This is an expectation.

In All Likelihood

Meaning: very probably

In all likelihood, the company will accept the proposal.

This expression is more formal than probably and is useful in essays, reports and formal discussions.

Compare:

They’ll probably announce the decision tomorrow.
In all likelihood, they’ll announce the decision tomorrow.

The second sentence sounds more formal and deliberate.

Almost Certainly

Meaning: extremely likely, although not completely certain

The train will almost certainly be delayed.

Almost certainly expresses a much stronger degree of confidence than perhaps, may, might or probably.

Compare:

He might resign.
It is possible.
He will probably resign.
It is more likely than not.
He will almost certainly resign.
I am extremely confident that he will resign.

Bound To

Meaning: certain or extremely likely to happen

You’re bound to make mistakes when learning a language.

Bound to expresses a very strong expectation. It is common in conversation and slightly more emphatic than probably.

Using Probability Language in Cambridge Exams

Varied probability language can improve your performance in B2 First and C1 Advanced tasks, but only if the expression suits the context.

In an essay

The proposed changes are likely to benefit younger residents.
In all likelihood, the scheme would reduce traffic congestion.
The policy would almost certainly require additional funding.

In a report

Attendance is likely to increase if the event is advertised online.
The new timetable should make the service more reliable.
There is a good chance that more students would participate.

In a review

This novel will most likely appeal to readers who enjoy historical fiction.
The ending is bound to surprise even experienced readers.

In the speaking exam

Perhaps they’re waiting for someone.
They might be discussing a problem.
Chances are, they already know each other.
The photograph was most likely taken in an office.

The aim is not to squeeze a formal expression into every answer. Choose language that sounds natural for the task.

Final Thoughts

Good English is not only about knowing grammar. It is also about having enough language to express exactly what you mean. Learning several ways to say probably will help you avoid repetition and choose language that reflects exactly how certain you are.

Instead of replacing probably with the same alternative every time, think about your degree of certainty:

Is something merely possible?
Is it more likely than not?
Are you making a logical assumption?
Are you almost completely certain?

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